AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, writes workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company is headquartered in DeRidder, Louisiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.28% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.65 (9.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.42% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.61 (9.61%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMSF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2022
End date: August 10, 2023
a = 3.1951
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.11%
February 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1951 + 0.0005 × 693 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.6571)
= $38.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1951 + 0.0005 × 693 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.4656)
= $32.00
August 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y845)
= Exp(a + b × X845 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1951 + 0.0005 × 1,226 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.9388)
= $51.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y845)
= Exp(a + b × X845 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1951 + 0.0005 × 1,226 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(3.7473)
= $42.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.28% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $52.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.65 (9.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: October 15, 2024
a = 3.7655
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.16%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y645)
= Exp(a + b × X645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7655 + 0.0000 × 933 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.8597)
= $47.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y645)
= Exp(a + b × X645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7655 + 0.0000 × 933 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.6928)
= $40.16
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7655 + 0.0000 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.8681)
= $47.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7655 + 0.0000 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(3.7012)
= $40.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.42% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.61 (9.61%).