AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, writes workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company is headquartered in DeRidder, Louisiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.34% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 388.36% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMSF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.0360
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 81.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.85%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0360 + 0.0016 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.8062)
= $44.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0360 + 0.0016 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.6505)
= $38.49
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0360 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(4.0915)
= $59.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0360 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.9358)
= $51.20
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 81.34% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -3.8473
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 388.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.31%
September 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8473 + 0.0043 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.8968)
= $49.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8473 + 0.0043 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(3.7896)
= $44.24
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8473 + 0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.1401)
= $62.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8473 + 0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.0329)
= $56.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 388.36% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.