Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers property and casualty insurance, its main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company and The Cincinnati Casualty Company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.18% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $147.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.72% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CINF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.6523
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0490
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.64%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6523 + 0.0007 × 1,146 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.6023)
= $99.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6523 + 0.0007 × 1,146 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.4064)
= $81.98
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6523 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.1072)
= $165.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6523 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.9113)
= $135.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.18% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $147.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 5.8455
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.71%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8455 + -0.0005 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.0817)
= $161.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8455 + -0.0005 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.9272)
= $137.99
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8455 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.0080)
= $149.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8455 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.8535)
= $128.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.72% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.