Radian Group Inc (RDN)
Radian Group Inc. is engaged in the mortgage and real estate services business in the United States. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.54% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $32.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 374.18% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.59 (1.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.0771
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0288
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0288) – 1
= 12.20%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0771 + -0.0003 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.6100)
= $36.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0771 + -0.0003 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.4949)
= $32.95
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0771 + -0.0003 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.5233)
= $33.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0771 + -0.0003 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(3.4082)
= $30.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.54% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $32.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025
a = -4.2473
b = 0.0043
s = 0.0083
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 374.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0083) – 1
= 3.38%
March 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2473 + 0.0043 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0083)
= Exp(3.4448)
= $31.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2473 + 0.0043 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0083)
= Exp(3.4116)
= $30.31
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2473 + 0.0043 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0083)
= Exp(3.5386)
= $34.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2473 + 0.0043 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0083)
= Exp(3.5054)
= $33.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 374.18% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.59 (1.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.