RLI Corp (RLI)
RLI Corp. The company is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.40% per annum.
- RLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $174.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 976.25% per annum.
- RLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.8486
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0232
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0232) – 1
= 9.71%
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8486 + 0.0012 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.9641)
= $143.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8486 + 0.0012 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.8714)
= $130.51
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8486 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.1642)
= $174.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8486 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.0715)
= $159.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.40% per annum.
- RLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $174.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -6.6967
b = 0.0065
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0065) – 1
= 976.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.84%
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6967 + 0.0065 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.0651)
= $158.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6967 + 0.0065 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9897)
= $146.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6967 + 0.0065 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.2279)
= $186.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6967 + 0.0065 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.1524)
= $172.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 976.25% per annum.
- RLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.