United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)
United Fire Group, Inc., offers property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.70% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.89 (56.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.86% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2022
End date: January 18, 2024
a = 4.1324
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0767
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.89%
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1324 + -0.0008 × 852 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(3.6236)
= $37.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y586)
= Exp(a + b × X586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1324 + -0.0008 × 852 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(3.3170)
= $27.58
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1324 + -0.0008 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(3.1045)
= $22.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1324 + -0.0008 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(2.7979)
= $16.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.70% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.89 (56.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2023
End date: June 4, 2024
a = 2.0497
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 26.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%
August 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0007 × 1,350 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(3.0055)
= $20.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0007 × 1,350 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.8540)
= $17.36
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0007 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(3.2063)
= $24.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0497 + 0.0007 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(3.0548)
= $21.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.86% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.