Progressive Corp (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation is an American insurance company, one of the largest providers of car insurance in the United States. The company insures motorcycles, boats, RVs, and commercial vehicles and provides home insurance through select companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.75% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $254.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.85% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.8914
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 71.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.66%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8914 + 0.0015 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.8851)
= $132.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8914 + 0.0015 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.6973)
= $109.65
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8914 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.6913)
= $296.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8914 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.5034)
= $245.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 71.75% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $254.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 27, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.4398
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 1.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.61%
August 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4398 + 0.0001 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.5684)
= $262.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4398 + 0.0001 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.4858)
= $241.24
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4398 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.5726)
= $263.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4398 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.4900)
= $242.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.85% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.