Ambac Financial Group Inc (AMBC)
Ambac Financial Group, Inc., a financial services holding company, offers financial guarantees in the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Australia, France and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.37% per annum.
- AMBC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.30% per annum.
- AMBC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMBC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2023
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 4.9621
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0875
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0875) – 1
= 41.91%
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0014 × 1,479 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(3.0422)
= $20.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0014 × 1,479 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.6922)
= $14.76
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0014 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.5606)
= $12.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0014 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.2106)
= $9.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.37% per annum.
- AMBC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.1429
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.52%
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1429 + 0.0007 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(2.4541)
= $11.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1429 + 0.0007 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(2.3273)
= $10.25
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1429 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(2.5302)
= $12.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1429 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(2.4034)
= $11.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.30% per annum.
- AMBC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.