Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., offers insurance products and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.69% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.42% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SIGI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 5.0160
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.74%
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0160 + -0.0003 × 1,337 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.7242)
= $112.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0160 + -0.0003 × 1,337 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.5609)
= $95.67
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0160 + -0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.5918)
= $98.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0160 + -0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(4.4285)
= $83.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.69% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $95.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 19, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.6024
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.47%
July 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6024 + 0.0011 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.4933)
= $89.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6024 + 0.0011 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.3938)
= $80.95
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6024 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.6275)
= $102.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6024 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.5279)
= $92.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 48.42% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.