Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG)
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., usually known as The Hartford, is a United States-based investment and insurance company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.52% per annum.
- HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
- HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HIG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024
a = 2.4080
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0400
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.36%
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.2789)
= $72.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.1189)
= $61.49
October 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.8829)
= $132.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.7229)
= $112.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.52% per annum.
- HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.1499
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0310
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.5920)
= $98.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.4680)
= $87.18
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.8409)
= $126.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.7169)
= $111.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
- HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.