Stock Price Trends

Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG)

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., usually known as The Hartford, is a United States-based investment and insurance company.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.52% per annum.
  • HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
  • HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HIG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 28, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 2.4080

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0400

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.36%

July 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.2789)
= $72.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y926)
= Exp(a + b × X926 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.1189)
= $61.49

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.8829)
= $132.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4080 + 0.0013 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.7229)
= $112.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.52% per annum.
  • HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $116.82 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.1499

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0310

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.5920)
= $98.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.4680)
= $87.18

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.8409)
= $126.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1499 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.7169)
= $111.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.49% per annum.
  • HIG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.