The Allstate Corporation (ALL)
The Allstate Corporation is an American insurance company, headquartered in Northfield Township, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $193.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.89% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: January 3, 2025
a = 3.2666
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0651
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0651) – 1
= 29.73%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2666 + 0.0012 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.7114)
= $111.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2666 + 0.0012 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.4511)
= $85.72
January 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2666 + 0.0012 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(5.4712)
= $237.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2666 + 0.0012 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(5.2109)
= $183.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $193.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.9511
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.69%
January 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9511 + 0.0007 × 1,437 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.0882)
= $162.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9511 + 0.0007 × 1,437 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.9339)
= $138.92
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.3751)
= $215.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9511 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.2208)
= $185.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.89% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.