The Travelers Companies Inc (TRV)
The Travelers Companies, Inc., commonly known as Travelers, is an American insurance company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.24% per annum.
- TRV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $259.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.25% per annum.
- TRV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.8332
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0598
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0598) – 1
= 27.02%
July 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8332 + 0.0009 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(5.1795)
= $177.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8332 + 0.0009 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(4.9403)
= $139.81
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8332 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(5.6446)
= $282.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8332 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(5.4054)
= $222.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.24% per annum.
- TRV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $259.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.2918
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.39%
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2918 + 0.0018 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.3541)
= $211.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2918 + 0.0018 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.2463)
= $189.86
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2918 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.6156)
= $274.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2918 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.5077)
= $246.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 92.25% per annum.
- TRV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.