HCI Group Inc (HCI)
HCI Group, Inc. is engaged in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate and information technology businesses in Florida. The company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.88% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $149.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.09% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.2422
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1317) – 1
= 69.33%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2422 + 0.0015 × 905 + 2 × 0.1317)
= Exp(3.8630)
= $47.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2422 + 0.0015 × 905 – 2 × 0.1317)
= Exp(3.3363)
= $28.12
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2422 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1317)
= Exp(5.2428)
= $189.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2422 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1317)
= Exp(4.7162)
= $111.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.88% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $149.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 3.4386
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0912
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0912) – 1
= 44.01%
November 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4386 + 0.0008 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(4.6304)
= $102.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4386 + 0.0008 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(4.2657)
= $71.21
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4386 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(5.0124)
= $150.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4386 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(4.6476)
= $104.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.09% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.