Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX)
Dynavax Technologies Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel vaccines in the United States. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.58% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.50% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2023
End date: October 25, 2024
a = 3.6816
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0408
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0408) – 1
= 17.71%
July 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6816 + -0.0007 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(2.7839)
= $16.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6816 + -0.0007 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(2.6208)
= $13.75
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6816 + -0.0007 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(2.4369)
= $11.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6816 + -0.0007 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0408)
= Exp(2.2738)
= $9.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.58% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.3257
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0499) – 1
= 22.10%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3257 + 0.0006 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.4699)
= $11.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3257 + 0.0006 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.2702)
= $9.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3257 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.5620)
= $12.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3257 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.3623)
= $10.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.50% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.