Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and markets therapies for people with rare diseases and serious and life-threatening medical conditions. The company is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.17% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $84.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.72% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.75 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2022
End date: August 5, 2024
a = 5.0869
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0588
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0588) – 1
= 26.54%
November 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y810)
= Exp(a + b × X810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + -0.0004 × 1,171 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.7514)
= $115.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y810)
= Exp(a + b × X810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + -0.0004 × 1,171 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.5160)
= $91.47
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + -0.0004 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.5110)
= $91.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + -0.0004 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(4.2756)
= $71.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.17% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $84.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: September 4, 2024
a = 1.7305
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.68%
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7305 + 0.0015 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.3986)
= $81.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7305 + 0.0015 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.2881)
= $72.83
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7305 + 0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.5714)
= $96.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7305 + 0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(4.4609)
= $86.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.72% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.75 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.