Stock Price Trends

Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and markets therapies for people with rare diseases and serious and life-threatening medical conditions. The company is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.61% per annum.
  • BMRN price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $56.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.45% per annum.
  • BMRN price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 1, 2025

a = 5.2143

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0785

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0785) – 1
= 36.91%

November 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2143 + -0.0006 × 881 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(4.8445)
= $127.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2143 + -0.0006 × 881 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(4.5304)
= $92.79

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2143 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(4.2799)
= $72.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2143 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(3.9658)
= $52.76

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.61% per annum.
  • BMRN price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $56.19 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 4, 2023
End date: July 1, 2025

a = 5.7254

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0677

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0677) – 1
= 31.12%

December 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7254 + -0.0009 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.7143)
= $111.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7254 + -0.0009 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.4434)
= $85.06

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7254 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.1869)
= $65.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7254 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(3.9160)
= $50.20

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.45% per annum.
  • BMRN price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.