Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and markets therapies for people with rare diseases and serious and life-threatening medical conditions. The company is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.14% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $61.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (5.02%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.09% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BMRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.1434
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0721
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0721) – 1
= 33.41%
November 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1434 + -0.0004 × 1,099 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.7933)
= $120.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1434 + -0.0004 × 1,099 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.5051)
= $90.47
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1434 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.4664)
= $87.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1434 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.1781)
= $65.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.14% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $61.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (5.02%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 11.0760
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.67%
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0760 + -0.0038 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.6334)
= $102.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0760 + -0.0038 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.4129)
= $82.51
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0760 + -0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.2336)
= $68.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0760 + -0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.0131)
= $55.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.09% per annum.
- BMRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.