Biogen Inc (BIIB)
Biogen Inc. is an American multinational biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in the discovery, development, and delivery of therapies for the treatment of neurological diseases to patients worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.00% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $156.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.76 (5.89%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.71% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.15 (3.79%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BIIB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2023
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 6.7276
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.73%
April 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7276 + -0.0008 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.8224)
= $337.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7276 + -0.0008 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.6015)
= $270.82
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7276 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3332)
= $207.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7276 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.1122)
= $166.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.00% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $156.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.76 (5.89%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 8.6853
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0286
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.14%
June 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6853 + -0.0019 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.5307)
= $252.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6853 + -0.0019 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.4161)
= $225.00
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6853 + -0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.2070)
= $182.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6853 + -0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(5.0924)
= $162.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.71% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.15 (3.79%).