Amgen Inc (AMGN)
Amgen Inc. (formerly Applied Molecular Genetics Inc.) is an American multinational biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California. Focused on molecular biology and biochemistry, its goal is to provide a healthcare business based on recombinant DNA technology.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.79% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $279.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.21 (7.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.90% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.99 (8.49%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2023
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 4.5163
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.77%
February 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5163 + 0.0007 × 1,176 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.4631)
= $235.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5163 + 0.0007 × 1,176 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.2499)
= $190.54
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5163 + 0.0007 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.9218)
= $373.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5163 + 0.0007 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.7086)
= $301.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.79% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $279.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.21 (7.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 6.2779
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.79%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2779 + -0.0003 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.8262)
= $339.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2779 + -0.0003 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.7605)
= $317.51
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2779 + -0.0003 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.7914)
= $327.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2779 + -0.0003 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.7257)
= $306.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.90% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.99 (8.49%).