Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.83% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $484.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.51 (2.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.36% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2021
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 4.9183
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0643
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.32%
May 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9183 + 0.0008 × 419 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.3728)
= $215.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9183 + 0.0008 × 419 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(5.1157)
= $166.61
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9183 + 0.0008 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(6.3598)
= $578.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9183 + 0.0008 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(6.1027)
= $447.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.83% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $484.82 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.51 (2.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.1109
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.32%
March 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1109 + 0.0006 × 713 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.6732)
= $290.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y492)
= Exp(a + b × X492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1109 + 0.0006 × 713 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(5.4317)
= $228.54
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1109 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.3619)
= $579.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1109 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.1204)
= $455.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.36% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.