Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.15% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $448.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.63 (0.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.80% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.68 (1.03%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2021
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 4.8057
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0636
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.98%
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8057 + 0.0008 × 569 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(5.3792)
= $216.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8057 + 0.0008 × 569 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(5.1248)
= $168.13
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8057 + 0.0008 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(6.3612)
= $578.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8057 + 0.0008 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(6.1067)
= $448.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.15% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $448.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.63 (0.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.2578
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0258
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0258) – 1
= 10.86%
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2578 + 0.0000 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(6.2267)
= $506.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2578 + 0.0000 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(6.1236)
= $456.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2578 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(6.2183)
= $501.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2578 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(6.1152)
= $452.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.80% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.68 (1.03%).