Stock Price Trends

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPRX)

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies for people with rare debilitating, neuromuscular, and chronic neurological diseases in the United States. The company is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
  • CPRX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (9.62%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.26% per annum.
  • CPRX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPRX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 10, 2022
End date: August 7, 2024

a = 2.6232

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1228

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1228) – 1
= 63.44%

August 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y683)
= Exp(a + b × X683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6232 + 0.0000 × 993 + 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.9183)
= $18.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y683)
= Exp(a + b × X683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6232 + 0.0000 × 993 – 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.4270)
= $11.33

August 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6232 + 0.0000 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.9546)
= $19.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6232 + 0.0000 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.1228)
= Exp(2.4633)
= $11.74

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
  • CPRX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $21.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (9.62%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 16, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.2040

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0793

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0793) – 1
= 37.35%

May 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2040 + 0.0010 × 1,272 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(2.6155)
= $13.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2040 + 0.0010 × 1,272 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(2.2981)
= $9.96

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2040 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(3.1611)
= $23.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2040 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(2.8438)
= $17.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.26% per annum.
  • CPRX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.