Stock Price Trends

Repligen Corporation (RGEN)

Repligen Corporation develops and markets bioprocessing systems and technologies for use in the biologic drug manufacturing process in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.98% per annum.
  • RGEN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.31% per annum.
  • RGEN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 28, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.6894

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1495

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1495) – 1
= 81.84%

June 28, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6894 + -0.0004 × 586 + 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(5.7467)
= $313.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6894 + -0.0004 × 586 – 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(5.1487)
= $172.21

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6894 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(5.2352)
= $187.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6894 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1495)
= Exp(4.6372)
= $103.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.98% per annum.
  • RGEN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.49 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 7.2698

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0983

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0983) – 1
= 48.14%

January 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2698 + -0.0013 × 1,521 + 2 × 0.0983)
= Exp(5.4533)
= $233.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2698 + -0.0013 × 1,521 – 2 × 0.0983)
= Exp(5.0603)
= $157.63

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2698 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0983)
= Exp(5.0496)
= $155.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2698 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0983)
= Exp(4.6566)
= $105.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.31% per annum.
  • RGEN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.