Cytokinetics Inc (CYTK)
Cytokinetics, Incorporated, an advanced stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing and commercializing muscle activators and inhibitors as potential treatments for debilitating diseases. The company is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.03% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.86% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CYTK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 6.8470
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0888
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0888) – 1
= 42.63%
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8470 + -0.0016 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.5688)
= $96.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8470 + -0.0016 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.2137)
= $67.61
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8470 + -0.0016 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(4.0540)
= $57.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8470 + -0.0016 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0888)
= Exp(3.6989)
= $40.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.03% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 3.6815
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.21%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6815 + 0.0002 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.0727)
= $58.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6815 + 0.0002 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.8886)
= $48.84
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6815 + 0.0002 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.1045)
= $60.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6815 + 0.0002 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.9204)
= $50.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.86% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.