Vericel Corp Ord (VCEL)
Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops, manufactures, and distributes cell therapies for the sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.49% per annum.
- VCEL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $57.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.90% per annum.
- VCEL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.40 (12.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VCEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: September 5, 2024
a = 2.1280
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0826
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.15%
August 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1280 + 0.0011 × 945 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.3168)
= $27.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y653)
= Exp(a + b × X653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1280 + 0.0011 × 945 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(2.9864)
= $19.81
September 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1280 + 0.0011 × 1,683 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(4.1162)
= $61.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1280 + 0.0011 × 1,683 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(3.7858)
= $44.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.49% per annum.
- VCEL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $57.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: November 6, 2024
a = 4.0550
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0644
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0644) – 1
= 29.37%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0550 + -0.0001 × 1,456 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.9831)
= $53.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,003)
= Exp(a + b × X1,003 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0550 + -0.0001 × 1,456 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.7257)
= $41.50
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0550 + -0.0001 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.9433)
= $51.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0550 + -0.0001 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.6858)
= $39.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.90% per annum.
- VCEL price at the close of January 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.40 (12.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.