Stock Price Trends

AbbVie Inc (ABBV)

AbbVie is an American publicly traded biopharmaceutical company founded in 2013. It originated as a spin-off of Abbott Laboratories.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.33% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $176.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.80 (5.86%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.31% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of January 27, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.99 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABBV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: December 29, 2023

a = 4.7900

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0584

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.29%

December 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y476)
= Exp(a + b × X476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7900 + 0.0001 × 687 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.9864)
= $146.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y476)
= Exp(a + b × X476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7900 + 0.0001 × 687 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.7530)
= $115.93

December 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7900 + 0.0001 × 1,431 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.0728)
= $159.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7900 + 0.0001 × 1,431 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.8394)
= $126.39

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.33% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $176.90 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.80 (5.86%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 4, 2023
End date: November 8, 2024

a = 3.9220

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0515

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.85%

May 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9220 + 0.0008 × 1,192 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(4.9393)
= $139.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9220 + 0.0008 × 1,192 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(4.7334)
= $113.68

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9220 + 0.0008 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.3642)
= $213.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9220 + 0.0008 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(5.1584)
= $173.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.31% per annum.
  • ABBV price at the close of January 27, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $7.99 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.