Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (SRPT)
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of RNA-targeted therapies, gene therapy, and other genetic therapeutic modalities for the treatment of rare diseases. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.36% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $106.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.41% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SRPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2021
End date: November 6, 2024
a = 4.0671
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1511
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1511) – 1
= 82.99%
March 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0671 + 0.0005 × 470 + 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(4.5971)
= $99.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0671 + 0.0005 × 470 – 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(3.9929)
= $54.21
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0671 + 0.0005 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(5.2482)
= $190.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0671 + 0.0005 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(4.6439)
= $103.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.36% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $106.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 8.4552
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.94%
June 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4552 + -0.0020 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(5.1298)
= $168.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4552 + -0.0020 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(4.9648)
= $143.28
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4552 + -0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(4.8226)
= $124.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4552 + -0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(4.6576)
= $105.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.41% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.