Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (SRPT)
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of RNA-targeted therapies, gene therapy, and other genetic therapeutic modalities for the treatment of rare diseases. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.05% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $128.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SRPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2021
End date: October 17, 2023
a = 3.8370
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1353
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1353) – 1
= 71.79%
March 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y384)
= Exp(a + b × X384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8370 + 0.0007 × 556 + 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(4.4960)
= $89.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y384)
= Exp(a + b × X384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8370 + 0.0007 × 556 – 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(3.9549)
= $52.19
October 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8370 + 0.0007 × 1,499 + 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(5.1550)
= $173.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8370 + 0.0007 × 1,499 – 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(4.6139)
= $100.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.05% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $128.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2022
End date: June 20, 2024
a = 4.7769
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1306) – 1
= 68.57%
August 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7769 + 0.0000 × 1,060 + 2 × 0.1306)
= Exp(5.0262)
= $152.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7769 + 0.0000 × 1,060 – 2 × 0.1306)
= Exp(4.5040)
= $90.38
June 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7769 + 0.0000 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.1306)
= Exp(5.0186)
= $151.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7769 + 0.0000 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.1306)
= Exp(4.4964)
= $89.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.41% per annum.
- SRPT price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.