Exelixis Inc (EXEL)
Exelixis, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company, is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new drugs to treat cancers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Alameda, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.41% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.97 (16.75%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 149.14% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: October 29, 2024
a = 2.1450
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0564
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0564) – 1
= 25.31%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1450 + 0.0006 × 1,027 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.8948)
= $18.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1450 + 0.0006 × 1,027 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.6692)
= $14.43
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1450 + 0.0006 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(3.3767)
= $29.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1450 + 0.0006 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(3.1511)
= $23.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.41% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $34.65 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.97 (16.75%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.0979
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0594
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 149.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0594) – 1
= 26.83%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0979 + 0.0025 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.1099)
= $22.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0979 + 0.0025 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(2.8722)
= $17.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0979 + 0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.5875)
= $36.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0979 + 0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.3499)
= $28.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 149.14% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.