Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops peptide-based therapeutic drugs to address unmet medical needs. The company is headquartered in Newark, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 173.50% per annum.
- PTGX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.12 (9.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.06% per annum.
- PTGX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.02 (7.25%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PTGX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: November 11, 2024
a = -1.0871
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0953
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 173.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0953) – 1
= 46.41%
September 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0871 + 0.0028 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(2.9462)
= $19.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0871 + 0.0028 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(2.5649)
= $13.00
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0871 + 0.0028 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(4.1149)
= $61.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0871 + 0.0028 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(3.7337)
= $41.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 173.50% per annum.
- PTGX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.65 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.12 (9.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 4.1763
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.46%
September 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1763 + -0.0002 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.9050)
= $49.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1763 + -0.0002 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.7440)
= $42.27
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1763 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.8909)
= $48.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1763 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.7300)
= $41.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.06% per annum.
- PTGX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.02 (7.25%).