Stock Price Trends

Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops peptide-based therapeutic drugs to address unmet medical needs. The company is headquartered in Newark, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 177.69% per annum.
  • PTGX price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $41.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 115.88% per annum.
  • PTGX price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PTGX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 14, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024

a = -1.3525

b = 0.0028

s = 0.1019

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 177.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1019) – 1
= 50.33%

September 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3525 + 0.0028 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(2.9534)
= $19.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3525 + 0.0028 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(2.5458)
= $12.75

September 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3525 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(3.9552)
= $52.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3525 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(3.5475)
= $34.73

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 177.69% per annum.
  • PTGX price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $41.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 22, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024

a = -0.1602

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0791

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 115.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.24%

December 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1602 + 0.0021 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.2976)
= $27.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1602 + 0.0021 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(2.9811)
= $19.71

September 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1602 + 0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.8436)
= $46.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1602 + 0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.5271)
= $34.03

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 115.88% per annum.
  • PTGX price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.