Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops drugs for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. The company is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.22% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (12.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.46% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2020
End date: April 24, 2023
a = 5.0206
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1389) – 1
= 74.30%
December 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0206 + -0.0014 × 383 + 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(4.7760)
= $118.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0206 + -0.0014 × 383 – 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(4.2204)
= $68.06
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0206 + -0.0014 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.5935)
= $36.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0206 + -0.0014 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.1389)
= Exp(3.0379)
= $20.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.22% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (12.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2022
End date: September 13, 2024
a = 4.1757
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1301) – 1
= 68.28%
February 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y563)
= Exp(a + b × X563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1757 + -0.0006 × 818 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(3.9785)
= $53.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y563)
= Exp(a + b × X563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1757 + -0.0006 × 818 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(3.4580)
= $31.75
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1757 + -0.0006 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(3.4529)
= $31.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1757 + -0.0006 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.9324)
= $18.77
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.46% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.