Stock Price Trends

TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX)

TG Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for B-cell malignancies and autoimmune diseases. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 202.42% per annum.
  • TGTX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was $33.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.27% per annum.
  • TGTX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.44 (11.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: January 3, 2025

a = -1.9633

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0815

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 202.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.54%

March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9633 + 0.0030 × 1,506 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(2.7657)
= $15.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9633 + 0.0030 × 1,506 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(2.4397)
= $11.47

January 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9633 + 0.0030 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.6601)
= $38.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9633 + 0.0030 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.3341)
= $28.05

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 202.42% per annum.
  • TGTX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was $33.45 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2024
End date: January 23, 2025

a = 9.4008

b = -0.0033

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.98%

November 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4008 + -0.0033 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.6276)
= $37.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4008 + -0.0033 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.4880)
= $32.72

January 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4008 + -0.0033 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.4182)
= $30.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4008 + -0.0033 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.2786)
= $26.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.27% per annum.
  • TGTX price at the close of January 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.44 (11.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.