Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND)
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing or acquiring technologies that help pharmaceutical companies discover and develop drugs globally. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.92% per annum.
- LGND price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $115.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.29% per annum.
- LGND price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LGND price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: December 26, 2024
a = 1.6828
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0695
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.03%
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6828 + 0.0017 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.1433)
= $63.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6828 + 0.0017 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.8655)
= $47.73
December 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6828 + 0.0017 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.9503)
= $141.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6828 + 0.0017 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(4.6725)
= $106.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.92% per annum.
- LGND price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $115.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = 7.6031
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0378
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.32%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6031 + -0.0016 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.8822)
= $131.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6031 + -0.0016 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.7310)
= $113.41
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6031 + -0.0016 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.7669)
= $117.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6031 + -0.0016 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.6156)
= $101.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.29% per annum.
- LGND price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.