Stock Price Trends

Regenxbio Inc (RGNX)

REGENXBIO Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, offers candidate gene therapy products to deliver genes to cells to address genetic defects or to enable cells in the body to produce therapeutic proteins or antibodies intended to affect disease. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.79% per annum.
  • RGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $9.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.38 (54.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.49% per annum.
  • RGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGNX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 11.8084

b = -0.0055

s = 0.0703

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.47%

February 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8084 + -0.0055 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.3020)
= $27.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8084 + -0.0055 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.0208)
= $20.51

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8084 + -0.0055 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(2.5532)
= $12.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8084 + -0.0055 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(2.2720)
= $9.70

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.79% per annum.
  • RGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $9.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.38 (54.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 6.7657

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0875

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.49%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0875) – 1
= 41.90%

April 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7657 + -0.0025 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.9676)
= $19.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7657 + -0.0025 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.6177)
= $13.70

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7657 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.4206)
= $11.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7657 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0875)
= Exp(2.0706)
= $7.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.49% per annum.
  • RGNX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.