Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.18% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $12.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 356.79% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROIV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: August 27, 2024
a = 2.2501
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0790
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.17%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2501 + 0.0001 × 613 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.4930)
= $12.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2501 + 0.0001 × 613 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.1769)
= $8.82
August 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2501 + 0.0001 × 1,061 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.5550)
= $12.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2501 + 0.0001 × 1,061 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.2390)
= $9.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.18% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $12.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = -1.9473
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 356.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9473 + 0.0042 × 1,032 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.3962)
= $10.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9473 + 0.0042 × 1,032 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.2992)
= $9.97
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9473 + 0.0042 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.5585)
= $12.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9473 + 0.0042 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(2.4615)
= $11.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 356.79% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.