Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.91% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROIV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1757
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0754
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0754) – 1
= 35.19%
June 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1757 + 0.0002 × 609 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.4689)
= $11.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1757 + 0.0002 × 609 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.1674)
= $8.74
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1757 + 0.0002 × 1,145 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.5942)
= $13.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1757 + 0.0002 × 1,145 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(2.2927)
= $9.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.91% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.8797
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0593
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0593) – 1
= 26.78%
October 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y514)
= Exp(a + b × X514 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8797 + 0.0005 × 747 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(2.3939)
= $10.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y514)
= Exp(a + b × X514 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8797 + 0.0005 × 747 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(2.1567)
= $8.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8797 + 0.0005 × 1,145 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(2.6047)
= $13.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8797 + 0.0005 × 1,145 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(2.3675)
= $10.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.