Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Myriad Genetics, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, develops and markets predictive, personalized, and prognostic medicine tests in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.12% per annum.
- MYGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.27% per annum.
- MYGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.96 (11.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MYGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2021
End date: January 10, 2024
a = 3.7043
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1324) – 1
= 69.86%
January 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7043 + -0.0006 × 418 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(3.7261)
= $41.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7043 + -0.0006 × 418 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(3.1963)
= $24.44
January 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7043 + -0.0006 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(3.0899)
= $21.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7043 + -0.0006 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(2.5602)
= $12.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.12% per annum.
- MYGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 2.7818
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1511
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1511) – 1
= 83.02%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7818 + 0.0002 × 883 + 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(3.2539)
= $25.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7818 + 0.0002 × 883 – 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(2.6494)
= $14.15
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7818 + 0.0002 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(3.4316)
= $30.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7818 + 0.0002 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.1511)
= Exp(2.8272)
= $16.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.27% per annum.
- MYGN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.96 (11.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.