Stock Price Trends

Westlake Chemical Corporation (WLK)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.75% per annum.
  • WLK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $127.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.18% per annum.
  • WLK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WLK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.0673

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0338

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0338) – 1
= 14.49%

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0673 + -0.0006 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.1233)
= $167.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0673 + -0.0006 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.9880)
= $146.65

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0673 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.9717)
= $144.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0673 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(4.8364)
= $126.02

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.75% per annum.
  • WLK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $127.91 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 10.7223

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0146

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0146) – 1
= 6.01%

September 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7223 + -0.0032 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(5.0406)
= $154.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7223 + -0.0032 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(4.9823)
= $145.80

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7223 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(4.8633)
= $129.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7223 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(4.8049)
= $122.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.18% per annum.
  • WLK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.