Innospec Inc (IOSP)
Innospec Inc. develops, manufactures, blends, markets, and supplies specialty chemicals in the United States, the rest of North America, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.45% per annum.
- IOSP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $94.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.63% per annum.
- IOSP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IOSP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.5471
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.19%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5471 + -0.0005 × 1,415 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.9505)
= $141.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5471 + -0.0005 × 1,415 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.7500)
= $115.59
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5471 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.7485)
= $115.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5471 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.5481)
= $94.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.45% per annum.
- IOSP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $94.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 10.3376
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0194
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0194) – 1
= 8.08%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3376 + -0.0032 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.7987)
= $121.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3376 + -0.0032 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.7211)
= $112.29
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3376 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.5796)
= $97.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3376 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.5019)
= $90.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.63% per annum.
- IOSP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.