Stock Price Trends

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF)

International Flavors & Fragrances is an American corporation that produces flavors, fragrances, and cosmetic actives, which it markets globally. It is headquartered in New York City.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.10% per annum.
  • IFF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $88.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.93 (14.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.42% per annum.
  • IFF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.16 (4.46%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IFF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 2.4607

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0387

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0387) – 1
= 16.74%

August 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4607 + 0.0012 × 1,357 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.2175)
= $67.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4607 + 0.0012 × 1,357 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.0626)
= $58.13

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4607 + 0.0012 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.7657)
= $117.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4607 + 0.0012 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0387)
= Exp(4.6109)
= $100.57

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.10% per annum.
  • IFF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $88.93 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.93 (14.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 10.4734

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0067

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0067) – 1
= 2.70%

October 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4734 + -0.0032 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(4.6770)
= $107.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4734 + -0.0032 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(4.6504)
= $104.62

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4734 + -0.0032 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(4.6056)
= $100.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4734 + -0.0032 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(4.5790)
= $97.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.42% per annum.
  • IFF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.16 (4.46%).