LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) is a Dutch-domiciled multinational chemical company with American and British roots, incorporated in the Netherlands, with U.S. operations headquarters in Houston, Texas, and offices in London, UK. The company is the largest licensor of polyethylene and polypropylene technologies. It also produces ethylene, propylene, polyolefins, and oxyfuels.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.91% per annum.
- LYB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.71% per annum.
- LYB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LYB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.2490
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.97%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2490 + -0.0032 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.6002)
= $99.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2490 + -0.0032 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.5612)
= $95.70
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2490 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.4241)
= $83.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2490 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.3852)
= $80.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.91% per annum.
- LYB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $82.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.3444
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0093
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0093) – 1
= 3.81%
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3444 + -0.0027 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.5039)
= $90.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3444 + -0.0027 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.4665)
= $87.05
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3444 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.4283)
= $83.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3444 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.3909)
= $80.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.71% per annum.
- LYB price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.