Stepan Company (SCL)
Stepan Company produces and sells specialty and intermediate chemicals to other manufacturers for use in various end products in North America, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The company is headquartered in Northfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.51% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $75.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.44% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.9470
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0728
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0728) – 1
= 33.78%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9470 + -0.0003 × 412 + 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.9545)
= $141.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9470 + -0.0003 × 412 – 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.6635)
= $106.01
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9470 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.4810)
= $88.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9470 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0728)
= Exp(4.1899)
= $66.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.51% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $75.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.5120
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0423
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.41%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5120 + -0.0007 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.6155)
= $101.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5120 + -0.0007 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.4465)
= $85.33
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5120 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.3894)
= $80.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5120 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.2204)
= $68.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.44% per annum.
- SCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.