H B Fuller Company (FUL)
HB Fuller Company formulates, manufactures and markets adhesives, sealants, coatings, polymers, tapes, encapsulants, additives and other specialty chemicals worldwide. The company is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.42% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $74.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.21% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.84 (1.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FUL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.0447
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0689
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0689) – 1
= 31.75%
March 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0447 + 0.0002 × 477 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.2639)
= $71.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0447 + 0.0002 × 477 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(3.9881)
= $53.95
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0447 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.4937)
= $89.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0447 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.2179)
= $67.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.42% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $74.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.7091
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.82%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7091 + 0.0004 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.2708)
= $71.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7091 + 0.0004 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.0817)
= $59.25
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7091 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.5121)
= $91.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7091 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.3230)
= $75.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.21% per annum.
- FUL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.84 (1.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.