NewMarket Corporation (NEU)
NewMarket Corporation participates in the petroleum additives business. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.08% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $538.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $187.05 (25.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 4.3085
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0534
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.81%
June 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3085 + 0.0013 × 930 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.6300)
= $278.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3085 + 0.0013 × 930 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.4164)
= $225.08
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3085 + 0.0013 × 1,616 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(6.5260)
= $682.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3085 + 0.0013 × 1,616 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(6.3125)
= $551.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.08% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $538.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $187.05 (25.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.7747
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0483
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.30%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7747 + -0.0003 × 1,483 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(6.4659)
= $642.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7747 + -0.0003 × 1,483 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(6.2728)
= $529.96
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7747 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(6.3721)
= $585.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7747 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(6.1790)
= $482.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- NEU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.