Albemarle Corp (ALB)
Albemarle Corporation is a fine chemical manufacturing company based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.90% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $111.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.90 (9.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 170.83% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2022
End date: November 7, 2024
a = 7.2841
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1135) – 1
= 57.44%
August 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2841 + -0.0016 × 981 + 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(5.9573)
= $386.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2841 + -0.0016 × 981 – 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(5.5035)
= $245.54
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2841 + -0.0016 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(4.6586)
= $105.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2841 + -0.0016 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.1135)
= Exp(4.2048)
= $67.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.90% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $111.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.90 (9.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = -0.2874
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0468
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 170.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0468) – 1
= 20.59%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2874 + 0.0027 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.4656)
= $86.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2874 + 0.0027 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.2784)
= $72.13
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2874 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.7905)
= $120.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2874 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.6032)
= $99.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 170.83% per annum.
- ALB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.