Stock Price Trends

Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR)

Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces and markets a variety of specialty chemicals formulated for a wide range of heavy manufacturing and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.68% per annum.
  • KWR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $123.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.41% per annum.
  • KWR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.6557

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0442

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.33%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6557 + -0.0010 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.4400)
= $230.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6557 + -0.0010 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(5.2633)
= $193.11

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6557 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.9838)
= $146.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6557 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.8070)
= $122.37

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.68% per annum.
  • KWR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $123.61 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 18, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 10.7540

b = -0.0032

s = 0.0203

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0203) – 1
= 8.48%

February 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7540 + -0.0032 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(5.0059)
= $149.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7540 + -0.0032 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.9245)
= $137.62

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7540 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.8729)
= $130.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.7540 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.7915)
= $120.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.41% per annum.
  • KWR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.