Quaker Chemical Corporation (KWR)
Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces and markets a variety of specialty chemicals formulated for a wide range of heavy manufacturing and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.27% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $164.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.77% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 6.6357
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.44%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6357 + -0.0009 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.4128)
= $224.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6357 + -0.0009 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.2692)
= $194.26
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6357 + -0.0009 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.1275)
= $168.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6357 + -0.0009 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.9839)
= $146.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.27% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $164.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.9143
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.55%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9143 + 0.0001 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.1522)
= $172.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9143 + 0.0001 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.0252)
= $152.20
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9143 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.1631)
= $174.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9143 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.0360)
= $153.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.77% per annum.
- KWR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.