Ingevity Corp (NGVT)
Ingevity Corporation manufactures and sells specialty chemicals and activated carbon materials in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. The company is headquartered in North Charleston, South Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $45.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.95% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NGVT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2021
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 4.7976
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1349) – 1
= 71.54%
April 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7976 + -0.0006 × 526 + 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(4.7464)
= $115.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7976 + -0.0006 × 526 – 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(4.2068)
= $67.14
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7976 + -0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(3.9617)
= $52.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7976 + -0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.1349)
= Exp(3.4221)
= $30.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $45.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2022
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 5.4694
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1346
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1346) – 1
= 71.33%
November 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4694 + -0.0011 × 1,079 + 2 × 0.1346)
= Exp(4.6008)
= $99.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y744)
= Exp(a + b × X744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4694 + -0.0011 × 1,079 – 2 × 0.1346)
= Exp(4.0624)
= $58.11
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4694 + -0.0011 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.1346)
= Exp(3.8279)
= $45.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4694 + -0.0011 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.1346)
= Exp(3.2894)
= $26.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.95% per annum.
- NGVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.