Stock Price Trends

Ecolab Inc (ECL)

Ecolab Inc., headquartered in St. Paul, Minnesota, is an American corporation that develops and offers services, technology and systems that specialize in water treatment, purification, cleaning and hygiene in a wide variety of applications. It helps organizations both private market as well as public treat their water, not only for drinking directly, but also for use in food, healthcare, hospitality related safety and industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.07% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $241.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.22% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.08 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ECL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.0614

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0478

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.07%

September 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0614 + 0.0008 × 1,036 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.0102)
= $149.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0614 + 0.0008 × 1,036 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.8190)
= $123.84

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0614 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.6600)
= $287.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0614 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.4688)
= $237.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.07% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $241.77 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.5043

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0221

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.23%

February 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5043 + 0.0006 × 1,545 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(5.4323)
= $228.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5043 + 0.0006 × 1,545 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(5.3440)
= $209.35

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5043 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(5.5931)
= $268.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5043 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(5.5047)
= $245.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.22% per annum.
  • ECL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.08 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.