Stock Price Trends

Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)

Sherwin Williams Company is a Cleveland, Ohio based company in the paint and coating manufacturing industry. The company primarily engages in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of paints, coatings, floorcoverings, and related products to professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers primarily in North and South America and Europe.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.25% per annum.
  • SHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $373.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.32% per annum.
  • SHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.3533

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0588

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0588) – 1
= 26.53%

February 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3533 + 0.0009 × 1,176 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(5.4911)
= $242.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3533 + 0.0009 × 1,176 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(5.2557)
= $191.66

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3533 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(6.0549)
= $426.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3533 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(5.8196)
= $336.83

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.25% per annum.
  • SHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $373.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.9313

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0402

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.43%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9313 + 0.0017 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.7676)
= $319.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9313 + 0.0017 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.6069)
= $272.31

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9313 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(6.0708)
= $433.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9313 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(5.9102)
= $368.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.32% per annum.
  • SHW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.