Minerals Technologies Inc (MTX)
Minerals Technologies Inc. develops, produces and markets a variety of specialty mineral, synthetic mineral and mineral products, and supporting systems and services. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.20% per annum.
- MTX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $79.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.20 (6.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.93% per annum.
- MTX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: July 29, 2024
a = 2.4076
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0651
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0651) – 1
= 29.77%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4076 + 0.0012 × 1,280 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.0566)
= $57.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4076 + 0.0012 × 1,280 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(3.7960)
= $44.52
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4076 + 0.0012 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.5691)
= $96.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4076 + 0.0012 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.3086)
= $74.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.20% per annum.
- MTX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $79.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.20 (6.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 5.5894
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.86%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5894 + -0.0007 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.5268)
= $92.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5894 + -0.0007 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.3291)
= $75.88
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5894 + -0.0007 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.3962)
= $81.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5894 + -0.0007 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.1985)
= $66.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.93% per annum.
- MTX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.