Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
Balchem Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty ingredients and performance products for the nutritional, food, pharmaceutical, animal health, medical device sterilization, plant nutrition, and industrial markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New Hampton, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.37% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $178.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.39% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BCPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.5459
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.13%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5459 + 0.0009 × 1,397 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.9122)
= $135.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5459 + 0.0009 × 1,397 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(4.7205)
= $112.22
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5459 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.3024)
= $200.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5459 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.1106)
= $165.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.37% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $178.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.8957
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0263
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0263) – 1
= 11.11%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8957 + 0.0001 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.1924)
= $179.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8957 + 0.0001 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.0871)
= $161.91
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8957 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.2108)
= $183.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8957 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0263)
= Exp(5.1055)
= $164.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.39% per annum.
- BCPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.