Stock Price Trends

RPM International Inc (RPM)

RPM International Inc. manufactures and sells specialty chemicals for the global consumer, specialty and industrial markets. The company is headquartered in Medina, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.16% per annum.
  • RPM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $134.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.86% per annum.
  • RPM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RPM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.4700

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0545

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0545) – 1
= 24.36%

March 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4700 + 0.0008 × 1,202 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.4974)
= $89.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y826)
= Exp(a + b × X826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4700 + 0.0008 × 1,202 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.2794)
= $72.20

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4700 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.9742)
= $144.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4700 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0545)
= Exp(4.7562)
= $116.30

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.16% per annum.
  • RPM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $134.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.8917

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0267

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 82.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.26%

June 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8917 + 0.0017 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.7180)
= $111.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8917 + 0.0017 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6113)
= $100.61

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8917 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.9644)
= $143.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8917 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.8577)
= $128.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.86% per annum.
  • RPM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.