Stock Price Trends

Celanese Corporation (CE)

Celanese Corporation is a Fortune 500 global technology and specialty materials company headquartered in Irving, Texas, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.34% per annum.
  • CE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $72.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.88 (29.76%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.99% per annum.
  • CE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: September 23, 2024

a = 7.5554

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0354

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0354) – 1
= 15.20%

March 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5554 + -0.0016 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.1854)
= $178.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5554 + -0.0016 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.0439)
= $155.08

September 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5554 + -0.0016 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(4.8741)
= $130.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5554 + -0.0016 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(4.7326)
= $113.59

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.34% per annum.
  • CE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $72.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.88 (29.76%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 18, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 48.6117

b = -0.0243

s = 0.0894

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0243) – 1
= -99.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0894) – 1
= 43.01%

October 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(48.6117 + -0.0243 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(5.2021)
= $181.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(48.6117 + -0.0243 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(4.8444)
= $127.02

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(48.6117 + -0.0243 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(4.3999)
= $81.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(48.6117 + -0.0243 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0894)
= Exp(4.0421)
= $56.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.99% per annum.
  • CE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.