TRI Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. is dedicated to the design, construction and sale of attached and semi-detached single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.08% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $41.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 1.6607
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1027
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1027) – 1
= 50.78%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6607 + 0.0012 × 935 + 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(3.0065)
= $20.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6607 + 0.0012 × 935 – 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(2.5959)
= $13.41
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6607 + 0.0012 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(4.0592)
= $57.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6607 + 0.0012 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(3.6485)
= $38.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.08% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $41.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.2430
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0819
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0819) – 1
= 38.78%
March 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2430 + 0.0008 × 1,226 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.4458)
= $31.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2430 + 0.0008 × 1,226 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.1181)
= $22.60
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2430 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.9543)
= $52.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2430 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.6266)
= $37.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.25% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.