Topbuild Corp (BLD)
TopBuild Corp. The company is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.88% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $351.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.20 (25.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: August 5, 2024
a = 3.2675
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0954
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0954) – 1
= 46.44%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2675 + 0.0017 × 1,027 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.1874)
= $179.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2675 + 0.0017 × 1,027 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(4.8060)
= $122.24
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2675 + 0.0017 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(6.3525)
= $573.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2675 + 0.0017 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0954)
= Exp(5.9711)
= $391.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 84.88% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $351.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $118.20 (25.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.5645
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0584
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.32%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5645 + -0.0003 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(6.1568)
= $471.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5645 + -0.0003 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.9232)
= $373.61
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5645 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(6.0594)
= $428.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5645 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.8258)
= $338.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.