Century Communities Inc (CCS)
Century Communities, Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, construction, marketing and sale of attached and attached single-family homes. The company is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.10% per annum.
- CCS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $86.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.26% per annum.
- CCS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 2.8423
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0885
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0885) – 1
= 42.46%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8423 + 0.0010 × 935 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.9551)
= $52.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8423 + 0.0010 × 935 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.6012)
= $36.64
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8423 + 0.0010 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.8170)
= $123.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8423 + 0.0010 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(4.4630)
= $86.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.10% per annum.
- CCS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $86.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.3521
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0251
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0251) – 1
= 10.58%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3521 + -0.0032 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.7212)
= $112.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3521 + -0.0032 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.6206)
= $101.56
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3521 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.5014)
= $90.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3521 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0251)
= Exp(4.4009)
= $81.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.26% per annum.
- CCS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.